SPECIAL PROJECTS

1992

Discussions on the Interim Arrangement


 
7 April
The 1992 Israeli Elections and the Future of the Peace Process
  Speaker: Bernard Sabella

Regarding the West Bank and Gaza Strip during the transition period, the basic positions of Labour and Likud are as follows. Likud recognizes no sovereignty but Israeli sovereignty. All aspects of the temporary and final solutions are to be identical. Since Likud separates people from land, and denies the exercise of Palestinian political rights, it is willing to normalise relations with Jordan to allow Palestinians limited involvement in Jordanian political affairs. Since the West Bank and Gaza Strip are to be under Israeli sovereignty, fundamentals of communal life, notably planning, security and natural resources, are to be controlled directly by the Israeli government. Although not seeking Israeli sovereignty over the Occupied Territories, Labour is concerned that the land of Israel should not house a binational state, and will not give up Israeli supervision of what it terms "security" nor Israeli control of natural resources. It is more sensitive to Palestinian political demands, in reciprocal measure to Palestinian sensitivity to Israeli interests regarding security and resources. Accordingly, the transitional period will be an experiment: will the two parties prove reciprocally responsive? Labour does not want Israel to be inhabited by an additional two million Palestinians, nor does it want a Palestinian state. It regards autonomy, with administrative arrangements between Israel and Jordan, as a framework which will not contradict Labour's vision for Israel. Autonomy, as an interim arrangement, should incorporate all the elements and mechanisms of the final arrangement. According to Labour, the prospect for Palestinians is control over all aspects of life, independent of Israel, but coordinating with Israel on matters of security, natural resources and borders. It includes the possibilities of an official political link with Jordan in order to develop Palestinian political institutions under a Jordanian umbrella, and of economic relations with Israel. Labour thus proposes an option which it hopes will end the political conflict while guaranteeing a continuing dominant role for Israel. What can we read into the possible results of the election? Israel's negotiating position will not change fundamentally, whoever wins. In the event of a Likud victory, emphasis will be on what has already been presented in Washington regarding how Palestinians are to administer their daily lives, with no possibility of the communal institutions required to exercise their political rights. If Labour win, we should not expect dramatic changes in the negotiations. Rabin will present the same obstacles as Shamir, if not worse. However, he will not sabotage the negotiations. His vision is of an interim agreement wherein he can guarantee Israeli interests at the same time as offloading the burden of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. If a coalition forms including both main parties, the Likud vision will dominate. The Israeli proposals will not change much in substance. Neither party will accept officially the PLO as a negotiating partner. At different stages, each would be ready to see the PLO participate indirectly, and there is the possibility of Labour meeting the PLO. We have no interest in backing Labour or Likud, but should set our priorities according to how we see the results of the elections in Israel and the U.S.. We should be prepared for whoever is elected, and must be open to the Arab world and develop mechanisms to help put the Palestinian house in order. We must translate words into action for unity.