Resources Scarcity as the New
Regional Imperative
Dr. Rosemary Hollis
The state system has carved the regional topography into shapes
that are not in line with natural resources. The present borders
do not consider natural resource use and cooperation.
Water
The above can be seen clearly in the issue of water
resources and the Middle East. In many areas, the distribution of
the river system is illogical, such as in the case of Egypt,
where the fate of the Nile lies only in the hands of up-river
states. Sudan, a country that should be extremely rich with its
agricultural land, plentiful water supply and potential
underground minerals, has consumed many of its resources in its
civil war. The Jordan Valley, as another example, is a river
system shared by Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Palestine, and Israel,
countries which have not yet agreed on cooperative methods of
usage. Only Jordan and Israel have a water agreement, but it does
not take into account the Palestinian share. The basin of the
Euphrates and Dijlah rivers is shared by Syria, Iraq, and Turkey,
but only Turkey is in control of the source, making it the only
country in the region with enough water. In Yemen, some areas
have plenty of water, while others suffer from a shortage, mainly
in the cities where the population density has exploded. Saudi
Arabia also faces a problem. While there is plenty of water now,
the Saudis are relying to a great extent on their renewable water
resources, which will leave them with a serious shortage in the
future.
Population distribution:
The population of the Middle East is clustered around the
water resources, with the highest densities found mainly in
Israel, Turkey and the Nile Valley. The populations are as
follows: Israel: 6 million; Syria: 17 million; Lebanon: 3
million; Yemen: 11 million; and Saudi Arabia: 7 million.
Despite the water supplies around them, many cities are in
serious trouble. Their population densities are growing faster
than the ability of water and the proper infrastructure to keep
up. Furthermore, many states are inflating their population
figures in order to justify their use of resources. For example,
official government figures put the Saudi population at 12.3
million, while in reality the number is closer to 7 million
(including expatriates).
Case Example: Demographic Dilemmas for the
Gulf States
Saudi Arabia and the GCC states are not overpopulated now, but
they have demographic problems, and studies point to a possible
demographic explosion. Most Gulf countries face high growth
rates, indicated by the fact that the majority of their citizens
are under 25. This poses a problem for the governments, which
cannot create new jobs for this generation. This is clear in the
example of Saudi Arabia. The Saudi state, which provided jobs and
privileges for the previous generations, can no longer afford to
maintain this level of subsidy (which was based on oil revenues).
Due to the increasing size of the population, the government
faces a situation in which expectations will not be met. In order
to avoid the possible political unrest that may result,
consumption behavior must be changed.
In Egypt, where most of the population lives on 4% of the land,
the government faces a serious demographic challenge. Moreover, a
child is born every 39 seconds, giving Egypt a growth rate of one
million every ten months.
Education System
The Middle East also faces inequality in its educational levels,
as different literacy rates mark each state. The rates are as
follows: Israel: 81-92% (not including Palestinian Territories);
Yemen and Saudi Arabia: 38-62%; Jordan: 76-80%; and Kuwait and
Iraq: 64-74%.
The educational systems also face a problem, as many of them do
not prepare students for a variety of possible professions.
Economics
The economies of many of the states in the Middle East can be
described as rentier/patronage economies. Such economies are
based on rents, or money that comes from the top down. That is,
money does not come from domestic industry, such as
manufacturing, but from government sources such as subsidies or
oil revenues.
Palestine:
Some predict that the Palestinian economy will develop into such,
where money is distributed from the top of the pyramid to its
base. Currently, the Palestinian economy faces an internal battle
between those interested in a monopoly and the entrepreneurs
hoping to invest from the outside.
Israel:
Israel can also be described as a hybrid rentier state as US$2.3
billion comes in annually in the form of civil and military aid,
in addition to the millions Israel receives from the Diaspora
Jewish community. At the same time, Israel has a blooming
"capitalist" economy.
Syria:
Syria received outside aid during the Gulf War.
Egypt:
In response to its political decisions, Egypt receives aid from
both the US and Saudi Arabia, but only enough for it to get by,
not to prosper.
The World bank is advocating that many of these economies make
radical changes, like those undertaken in Eastern Europe. Such
changes would revolutionize the economies, especially in the
Gulf, but could also spell upheaval.
Gulf Oil Resources
Sixty-six percent of the world reserves are concentrated
in the Gulf states. Distribution is as follows: Saudi Arabia:
25.6%; Iran: 9.31%; Kuwait: 9.43%; Yemen: 1.4%; UAE: 9.84%; and
Iraq: 10.05%.
The US has downgraded its dependency on oil from the region, and
has turned to countries such as Nigeria and Mexico. At the same
time, it maintains its control over Middle East oil. It is
banning investment in Iranian oil and putting pressure on its
European allies to invest instead in Saudi Arabia, where it can
control the market.
Two possible scenarios face the Middle East. These are as
follows:
Disintegration of the state system: There will be pockets
of advanced communities with high technology surrounded by
security barriers. This scenario could come about if states lose
the capability to provide the country with resources.
Some winners/some losers: While some states will maintain
stability, others will fall apart. The winners would face some
dismantling of the state system as integration becomes the norm.
The states of the Middle East face the following problems:
the need to create new sources of wealth;
the need to preserve/find new sources of water;
the need to change industrial policy;
the need to change the rentier economies by producing money from
the people and decreasing the services of the state;
the need to undergo serious political changes.