Exercise on Lobbying the
External Powers
with Dr. Rosemary Hollis
The aim of the exercise was for the participant to examine three
scenarios describing how events in Palestine could develop.
Participants were then required to prepare a presentation to be
given to a senior diplomat of an external power (in this case the
US) in a bid to lobby the power to become involved in Palestinian
interests.
The lobbying exercise was divided into three parts or rounds in
which the participants were divided into three working groups,
i.e., groups A, B and C. The participants were instructed to
encourage the US to do something as the main external power.
Round 1
The task in this round was to examine three scenarios as to
how events in Palestine could develop. The three scenarios were
as follows:
Collapse of the peace process: degeneration into violence
between Israelis and Palestinians in the West Bank (and Gaza);
Re-invigoration of the peace process: serious resumption
of negotiations between Israel and Syria/Lebanon and
implementation of Oslo II alongside negotiations on final status;
No-war no-peace: stalemate in the peace process though
both sides say they want to continue; isolated clashes
interspersed with inconclusive negotiations (i.e., continuation
of present situation).
Following discussion of the three scenarios participants were
asked to identify and list the key actors and dynamics
driving/influencing developments.
Results:
Scenario 1: suicide bombing; clashes between settlers and
Palestinians; announcements; Israeli and Palestinian police
clash; IDF re-enters some cities; state of emergency; "total
anarchy"; Arab countries recall ambassadors; tension in
relations with Israel; Israeli stock market plummets; attacks on
American targets; oil price rise; Arabs demonstrate in US;
protests in Third World countries; military maneuvers.
Scenario 2: new Labor government; Arafat sends letter to
congratulate; re-deployment in Hebron; Israeli government removes
closure (CBM); opening of West Bank/ Gaza corridor; negotiate
about final status; industrial zones; Gaza port; regional
stability encourages investments; Hamas is integrated in the
process.
Scenario 3: no trust between different sides; ideology
commitments of government cannot be met; cannot contain growth of
anti-peace; money being wasted; Arafat may not be around in few
years so need to help him deliver; US citizens are at risk.
Round 2
The participants were divided into the three groups again. Each
group was then instructed to work on one scenario. The scenarios
were divided as follows:
Group A to work on Scenario 1;
Group B to work on Scenario 2;
Group C to work on Scenario 3.
The separate groups were required to create a story in the form
of newspaper headlines, following each other in logical sequence
over a period of six months, that described how each group’s
scenario would come about. The groups were asked to focus on the
key actors and dynamics discussed earlier in Round 1.
Round 3
A spokesperson from each of the three groups then told the
story (with news bulletins/headlines) of how their scenario would
take shape in the following six months. Participants were asked
to compare the others’ stories with their own.
Round 4
Each group had to prepare a presentation to give to a
senior diplomat representing the external power (in this case the
US). The groups had to decide how they were going to explain the
three scenarios in such a way as to capture the full attention of
the US diplomat. They had to try to indicate how his or her
country’s interests could be directly affected by what
happens in Palestine.