Exercise: Responding to a Regional Crisis as Policy
Makers for the Arab States
with Dr. Rosemary Hollis

The following are sample instruction sheets distributed to each of the 13 Palestinian participants in the seminar:

The simulation is divided into four parts or rounds, each lasting 40 minutes, with 10 minute breaks in between for "press briefings."

The situation on the ground is as follows:
Netanyahu has announced:
reinforcement of existing settlements (with tax breaks for settlers etc.);
suspension of further Israeli troop deployments including in Hebron.

Mass demonstrations of Palestinians (and Peace Now) are planned at several sites in the West Bank and around Jerusalem to protest further settlement building. Settlers have vowed to go ahead with settlement expansion, with or without Netanyahu’s support.

Task 1
Your position: Foreign Minister of Egypt
Your ultimate objective is: the establishment of an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza (at a minimum along the lines of the Abu Mazen-Beilin Plan). You would like to persuade the Israelis that this is the only real way to achieve peace.
At the same time you want to promote the interests of Egypt, which implies the following:
preserving a role for Egypt in the process;
being seen as a defender of Palestinian dignity and needs, at the same time as influencing Israel;
avoiding making any threats that Egypt cannot realistically carry out.

Round 1
Go to the meeting in room A: The participants in this meeting are: senior Egyptian policy-makers including the President, Foreign Minister and Chief of Security Affairs.
Your task is:
to define Arafat’s choices of action;
to decide what: (a) Arafat should do; (b) what Egypt will do to reinforce his position; then
to draw up a press statement accordingly.
at the end of this round deliver your statement to the press.

Round 2
Go to the meeting in room B: The participants in this meeting are: the foreign ministers (or equivalent) of Syria, Egypt, Jordan and Palestine.
Your task is:
to discuss whether there are any economic inducements or penalties which can be devised by the Arabs to persuade Israel to desist from its policies of settlement expansion and halting re-deployment on the West Bank;
to decide what combined diplomatic/economic action could be taken to: (a) threaten Israel; (b) reward Israel;
to achieve a change of attitude on Israel’s part, bearing in mind the costs/ benefits for each of the Arab countries;
to agree on what, it any, actions each of you is prepared to take and prepare a press statement accordingly (either singly or jointly);
at the end of this round deliver your statement to the press.
Keep in mind the interests of your own country/leadership. Use your own judgment as to how much you reveal about what happened in Round 1.

Round 3
Go to the meeting in room A: The participants in this meeting are: senior Egyptian policy-makers as in Round 1.
Your task is:
to share what you have learned in Round 2;
to discuss the implications for your situation;
to decide how you intend to proceed vis-à-vis the Israelis [an update on what they are doing will be supplied to you during the meeting];
to draw up (a) a press release; (b) an action plan for presentation by you in Round 4;
at the end of this round: (a) deliver your statement to the press; (b) keep your action plan to yourselves.

Round 4
Go to the meeting in room A: This is an Arab summit meeting of Arab leaders from around the region.
First: listen to the round-up of developments provided by the press.
Then: deliver your action plan to the group.

The simulation will then conclude with a discussion on which of the players best advanced their objectives.

Task 2
Your position: Minister of Foreign Affairs of Jordan
You hear that a high-ranking Israeli delegation wishes to hold consultations with the Jordanian leadership. They intend to propose a bargain - the Israeli military will control and contain the settlers on the West Bank and halt the expansion of settlements if Jordan will agree to enter secret negotiations to forge a confederate relationship between Palestinian areas on the West Bank and Jordan.
Your ultimate objective is: to find a resolution of the Palestine problem which does not threaten the Hashemite monarchy and general stability in Jordan, but rather, will bring calm to the West Bank and enable Jordan to thrive economically.

Round 1
Go to the meeting in room B: The participants in this meeting are: the Jordanian leadership, including the King, the Foreign Minister and the Chief of Security Affairs.
Your task is:
to define your choices in the face of developments and decide how you propose to respond to the Israeli delegation;
to draw up a press statement accordingly - only reveal your talks with the Israelis if you want to;
at the end of this round deliver your statement to the press.

Round 2
Go to the meeting in room B: The participants in this meeting are: the foreign ministers (or equivalent) of Syria, Egypt, Jordan and Palestine.
Your task is:
to discuss whether there are any economic inducements or penalties that can be devised by the Arabs to persuade Israel to desist from its policies of settlement expansion and halting re-deployment on the West Bank;
to decide what combined diplomatic/economic action could be taken to: (a) threaten Israel; (b) reward Israel, (c) achieve a change of attitude on Israel’s part, bearing in mind the costs/benefits for each of the Arab countries;
to agree on what, if any, actions each of you is prepared to take and prepare a press statement accordingly (either singly or jointly);
at the end of this round deliver your statement to the press.
Keep in mind the interests of your own country/leadership. Use your own judgment as to how much you reveal about what happened in Round 1.

Round 3
Go to the meeting in room B: The participants in this meeting are: the Jordanian leadership as in Round 1.
Your task is:
to share what you have learned in Round 2;
to discuss the implications for your situation;
to decide how you intend to proceed vis-à-vis the Israelis [an update on what they are doing will be supplied to you during the meeting];
to draw up (a) a press release; (b) an action plan for presentation in Round 4;
at the end of this round: (a) deliver your statement to the press; (b) keep your action plan to yourselves.

Round 4
Go to the meeting in room A: This is an Arab summit meeting of Arab leaders from around the region.
First: listen to the round-up of developments provided by the press.
Then: deliver your action plan to the group.

The simulation will then conclude with a discussion on which of the players best advanced their objectives.


Task 3
Your position: Minister of Foreign Affairs of Syria
You know that Hizballah is planning to escalate attacks on Israelis in South Lebanon and possibly across the border. You know this could mean an escalated Israeli response.
Your ultimate objective is: the protection of Syria; maintaining a Syrian role in Lebanon; being seen to be tough in the face of Israeli aggression.

Round 1
Go to the meeting in room C: The participants in this meeting are: senior Syrian policy-makers and the President, Foreign Minister and Chief of Security Affairs.
Your task is:
to define Syria’s choices of action in the face of developments, especially those in Lebanon and decide how Syria should act to: (a) prevent events from triggering a direct Israeli attack on Syria or Syrian forces in Lebanon; and to (b) exploit the situation to put pressure on Israel and show it in a bad light;
when you have decided, to write a statement for the press telling them what you want them to report;
at the end of this round deliver your statement to the press.

Round 2
Go to the meeting in room B: The participants in this meeting are: the foreign ministers (or equivalent) of Syria, Egypt, Jordan and Palestine.
Your task is:
to discuss whether there are any economic inducements or penalties that can be devised by the Arabs to persuade Israel to desist from its policies of settlement expansion and halting re-deployment on the West Bank;
to decide what combined diplomatic/economic action could be taken to: (a) threaten Israel; (b) reward Israel;
to achieve a change of attitude on Israel’s part, bearing in mind the costs/ benefits for each of the Arab countries;
to agree on what, if any, actions each of you is prepared to take and prepare a press statement accordingly (either singly or jointly);
at the end of this round deliver your statement to the press.
Keep in mind the interests of your own country/leadership. Use your own judgment as to how much you reveal about what happened in Round 1.

Round 3
Go to the meeting in room C: The participants in this meeting are: senior Syrian policy-makers as in Round 1.
Your task is:
to share what you have learned in Round 2;
to discuss the implications for your situation;
to decide how you intend to proceed vis-à-vis the Israelis [an update on what they are doing will be supplied to you during the meeting];
to draw up (a) a press release; (b) an action plan for presentation in Round 4;
at the end of this round: (a) deliver your statement to the press; (b) keep your action plan to yourselves.

Round 4
Go to the meeting in room A: This is an Arab summit meeting of Arab leaders from around the region.
First: Listen to the round-up of developments provided by the press.
Then: Deliver your action plan to the group.

The simulation will then conclude with a discussion on which of the players best advanced their objectives.