Decision-Making Theory: Three Approaches
Dr. Rosemary Hollis

The "Realist" approach has some uses - particularly in the calculation of restraints on states and of the forces at work - but it does not allow for evolutionary forces at the global level, such as the globalization of the world economy. Furthermore, it does not take account of the fact that the decision-making ability of states has declined. There is now more decision-making at the global level. The idea that the state is pointless if it does not provide security is an old idea. Nowadays, the state does not have the power to deliver things such as jobs or a strong economy.

Realism also assumes rationality on the part of states and disallows (incorrectly) the impact of politics at the domestic level on foreign policy. At the state/domestic level, not only are there interacting and sometimes conflicting interests and groups, but there are decision-makers whose rationales may have more to do with their personal ambitions than "raison d’état," or indeed with their positions within bureaucracies.

The following are three models of how decision-making takes place:

1) Rational Policy Model:
Assumes that the state or the government is a unitary, rational actor. State action is thus seen as a rational choice in which:
- goals and objectives are identified (national security etc.);
- available options are discerned in the context of the international marketplace;
- consequences are assessed in terms of outcomes, costs, and benefits;
- choices are made on the basis of net evaluation.

2) Organizational Process Model:
The organizational process model assumes an ethos of behavior, an operational program.
Government actions are not choices but the product of organizational functioning according to standard patterns of behavior.
Organizations (foreign ministry, transport ministry, armed forces, etc.) operate according to their own standards regarding operating procedures and programs, e.g., training to automatically take orders in armed forces, the profit factor/ accountant’s bottom line in business.
Government options are dictated by available organizational resources, including the armed forces and how they operate, e.g., mobilization procedures.

Some factors involved in the process are:

corporatism (competing for budget allocations);
each organization has its own agenda behind foreign policy;
sequential attention to problems/goals;
feeding information upwards as part of the standard operating procedure, which is resistant to speedy action/change;
an existing repertoire of programs to call upon;
uncertainty avoidance - all new information is fitted into a form of knowledge;
a range of decentralization vs. control between government leaders and organizations;
different arrangements for the interaction between the various bodies.

In conclusion, leading decision-makers receive only such information and assistance as an organization is capable of providing, given its role in the picture.

3) Bureaucratic Politics Paradigm:
Policy is an outcome of political bargaining between those in the government hierarchy.
Government officials have separate and unequal powers over different aspects of the whole situation, as well as separable objectives in various sub-games.
Individuals involved in decision-making have their own constituencies, personalities, background and "baggage."