A spike in violence adds to Abbas' woes

By Michael Matza
Inquirer Staff Writer

JERUSALEM - A sharp uptick in violence after a Palestinian suicide bombing and an Israeli military foray in the West Bank and Gaza last week has dramatically added to the political peril of faltering Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

In office since the death of Yasir Arafat just under a year ago, Abbas has yet to assert firm control over the dangerous independent militias, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

The weakness of Abbas' rule threatens to erode his support in the United States and scuttle his chances for an early resumption of postponed talks with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

After the suicide attack in Khadera, a concerned Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice telephoned Abbas to say he must rein in the militants and dismantle their terrorist networks. An angry Sharon said there would be no summit until the Palestinian leader acts.

In the sharpest attack on Abbas by an Israeli leader, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said Friday he "is a one-man show. Behind him there is nothing, only emptiness."

At first hailed as a welcome change after nearly four decades of Arafat's duplicitous rule, Abbas, known colloquially as Abu Mazen, now seems adrift in a sea of good intentions, unable to implement the needed security reforms.

"He is not the boss. He is the face of what a boss should be. But he is not the boss. He's the representative of his people. He's not the leader of his people... . He is not a confronter," Palestinian political analyst Mahdi Abdul Hadi said.

Abbas says he favors persuasion over confrontation. Rather than dismantle the extremist groups, he is trying to absorb them into his governing Palestinian Authority. Hamas' decision to run candidates in the parliamentary elections scheduled for the end of January could advance that goal.

Adding to Abbas' problems, Gaza, since the Israeli pullout, has grown increasingly chaotic, with armed gangs roaming the territory and outgunned security forces incapable of stopping them.

Despite his problems, Abbas' supporters say he is not being given sufficient credit for talking the militias into cutting back on their violence. Hamas, in particular, has mounted fewer attacks and seems willing to try to enter into the political process in the territories. Islamic Jihad, however, is responsible for suicide attacks in Israel during the relative quiet of recent months and has refused to go along with Abbas.

"Abu Mazen is doing a lot, actually. He is not 100 percent effective. But he is making a difference," Palestinian cabinet minister Ghassan Khatib said.

"He cannot give an order to his security to arrest or kill whoever is not adhering to the law because this is something that is beyond the capability not only of the Palestinian security but also of the Israeli security. This is not something that can be done by force," Khatib said.

Abbas has condemned suicide bombings. He has attempted to implement the rule of law in Palestinian cities where armed gangs hold sway. He has called for a government monopoly on the carrying of weapons.

But his exhortations have had little effect, and critics have said he has to start cracking down on the gunmen.

"One Authority, one law, one gun - those are his words, not mine," Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev said. "He says, 'I will implement my policy in my way. I know my situation best.' That's his argument. We say, 'Fine, but where are the results?' They have to show that the elected Palestinian leadership counts for something."

That could now be harder than ever to do. On Friday, a joint statement by all militant factions said they are no longer bound by the Abbas-negotiated provisional cease-fire since Jihad leaders and several bystanders were killed last week by Israeli air strikes. If the Palestinians are to be taken seriously in future negotiations with Israel, observers say, Abbas has to pull off something on a par with the boldness of the Israeli pullout from the Gaza Strip, which was a clear departure from business as usual.

A full-frontal assault on Hamas might be beyond Abbas' capacity at the moment. But disarming Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade, the armed offshoot of his own Fatah party, would be an obvious start.

Abbas is making efforts to co-opt hundreds of disgruntled Aqsa gunmen by offering them jobs and retraining for inclusion in the regular Palestinian security forces.

But that is easier said than done, especially since recent events point to a growing cooperation between Aqsa and Jihad militiamen in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

On Wednesday, masked gunmen identifying themselves as Jihad and Aqsa members held a joint news conference in Gaza City to claim responsibility for the Khadera attack - a brazen display of how little authority Palestinian security forces have even in areas under full Palestinian control, critics say.

"This is still part of the painful transition in the post-Arafat era. It's not easy. It happened in Egypt after Nasser. It happened in the Soviet Union after Gorbachev," said Abdul Hadi, the political analyst.

"It is a bleeding transition. People are frustrated. They are angry. Uncertainty lies ahead."