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Introduction:

People talk nowadays about the current political situation and not about the establishment of a state, the right of self-determination or sovereignty. The everyday talk of the people focuses on the daily social relations and the minimum requirements of coexistence in this "prison". As for the European or American role, it concentrates on improving life conditions in this "prison", and that the Palestinian movement is incapable of pulling down the wall or halting the deterioration in the security and economic conditions in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, in addition to the questions about the elements of this society, especially the Islamic Movement: Is there a contradiction between the ideological or political vision and the task on the ground, which is the liberation of Palestine from the River to the Sea or the establishment of an Islamic state or independence and sovereignty on all of Palestine.

Reading through the various phases that Hamas engaged in starting with the positions of Sheikh Ahmad Yasin, calling for the "calm" or the participation in the ruling and elections, or accepting a Palestinian state, we can note that there is a contradiction between these positions on the one hand, and the call for armed struggle and resisting occupation and rejecting to recognize or negotiate with the Israelis, on the other hand.

In this session, can one discuss the political agenda of Hamas Movement in the field that it wants to engage in?

1. Resistance or the recognition of the state of Israel through dealing with it.
2. Ruling along with Fatah or resisting this rule
3. Work on the economic and social agenda
4. Joining the elections and then the authority or join the ruling system.

Are we here comparing this situation with the Turkish model which combines between the attempt to become a member state in the European Union and maintaining the Islamic dimension or the way they envision the economic relations in the region as a whole in light of the collapse of the Soviet Union or the national tendencies of Turkey and the reformulation of the future of Turkey? Is there is a clear conflict in the priorities of which path to lead or is there is a possibility to combine all trends in one position?

The agenda saying that Hamas is a terrorist movement is not recognized anymore and has been pushed aside. The clear position is that Hamas members are Palestinian citizens who constitute an indispensable part of the Palestinian society no matter what their ratio is in the society. Regardless of the internal conflicts between those who want to have an alliance with Hezbollah and those who want to engage in internal alliances within the Hezbollah Formula inside the Palestinian lands.

What is the position of Hamas with regards to the Israeli aggression, arrests and assassination of political leaders?

Does Hamas want us to pose the vision of an Islamic state and Sharia (Islamic Law) as part of the constitution or is Hamas transforming into a religious party as is the case in Israel, the religious movement formed Shas Party according to the Israeli conditions.

The following questions have to be posed: Will Hamas boycott the elections because of the arrests, the assassinations and the closures? Is there momentum in Hamas leadership to go down to the streets and participate in the elections?

Is there another vision on the means to have Hamas maintain its role in the society?

The other question to be posed in this context: are we talking about participation and assuming responsibility for the results or are there negotiations towards consolidating the truce? In other words, there won't be attacks regardless of the position on rejecting the recognition of the state of Israel?

What are the other concessions? Is Hamas looking for alliances within the Palestinian political scene for the next elections or will it work on running in the elections as an independent bloc? The question that follows: how will be the structure of the Palestinian internal front if Hamas participates and wins in the elections.

Among the other questions that were posed: "What is Hamas' position regarding the security, reform and elections?"

One has to read the future of Hamas taking into consideration the fact that there is still a conflict, splits and challenges that face Fatah Movement and that might lead to its disintegration if they don’t work on bridging the gap between the generations and unify the vision; the most urgent task now is to end the personal struggles, especially in the areas of Hebron, Nablus and Gaza.

There are also other factors that get entangled within this web, namely the security, reform and elections, and there is also the issue of money, meaning where is the money from and who funds who?

Participant:
What Hamas wants to achieve is not under your total control because there are others on the arena and one has to take the other players into consideration. The major influencing factor that affects all factions and movements, including Fatah and the PNA, is the objective and historical conditions that affect everyone in the same way. I will explain what I mean by this:

For example, let us take the elections: the question that pops up is how will Hamas react if Israel obstructs the elections and if it continues with the arrests? There is always a second party, whether it is the PNA or Israel. Thus, there are influencing factors that push the factions and movements in various directions. It is easy for some to say that it is possible to transform into a political movement and others say it is difficult. The basic question remains :

Is there a convincing political track in light of continuation of occupation in the West Bank?

I believe that armed resistance will return and will not be limited to Hamas only. It is possible to see Hamas reconsider the operations against civilians and try to control it if such operations become linked with terrorism at the media level. As for resistance against the army and the settlers, I believe that this is a matter of time and such resistance will return. Resisting occupation is not linked to Hamas only.

One final comment: sometimes, at the political level, some insist that Hamas wants to destroy the state of Israel, but this is not true because it is clear how Hamas thinks about the two state solution and how to take this formula out of the ideological context. It is clear that it won't be within this context. They will find a semi-religious justification or a truce for ten years open for renewal. They won't say that it is reconciliation but this will be a way out, and that was clear from the statements of Sheikh Yasin when he said this matter will be left for the future generations, and this shows that he meant there would be acceptance of the facts on the ground, etc. Therefore, this is a wrong reading by some of the mass media who seek to find a linkage between Hamas and this particular position.

Participant:
The conditions forcing themselves on Hamas towards participation in the elections will radically contradict with their current vision and position, even if it seems that they might boycott the elections in the West Bank but not in Gaza Strip!

Participant:
My question has to do with the position of Israel only because the US position is clear, and it was preceded by Kofi Annan who made a very important statement: it is illogical to ask Hamas to give up its weapons before the elections. This statement can be interpreted as follows: Hamas has no share in the political decision and when that time comes, one can ask them to give up their weapons. The question that follows: if this formula is accepted by Hamas, unlike the comparison with Hezbollah on the issue of Shabaa Farms, the basic disagreement in positions is that there is an occupied territory which is the West Bank and this core point is posed to Hamas and all other armed factions. The other question is how will the President deal with this issue?

• First: banning of weapons in public places
• Second: running in the elections

Participant:
Let us assume that Hamas participated in the elections, the truce and the political transformation, regardless of the statements of Kofi Annan, which is the possibility of Hamas participation in the elections, and regardless of the reservations expressed by George Bush, which can be considered as positive. Although everyone recognizes that Hamas is part of the Palestinian political reality, there are almost impossible conditions set by Israel which says it will obstruct the elections if Hamas participates in the elections, not taking into consideration the following (the disarming, halt of resistance and recognizing the state of Israel).

Follow up question: to what extent can the US exert pressure on Israel?

Participant:
Hamas' decision to participate in the elections is actual readiness to accept political pluralism which means the acceptance of a secular state based on political pluralism because if Hamas wants an Islamic state, it has to wipe out political pluralism which contradicts with the Sharia. This question needs further studying with Hamas leaders. Is it a maneuver or is there a real change in the culture and political program?

I believe that if there is commitment to participate in elections and abide by the results of the ballot boxes, this means that there is a commitment to accept a secular state; we need to explain to what extent there is commitment to political pluralism and elections which means to trust those elected to rule the people and not the Sharia.

The participant asked Sheikh Hasan Yousef about the difference between the Shura Council and democracy.

Sheikh Hasan Yousef said democracy means that the people shall decide but the Shura means that the Sharia decides and we have to abide by what the Sharia states.

Second: what effect it will have on Hamas in terms of its relation with Fatah or the political organization, which means that we might have two major parties and small parties that might make coalitions.

Participant:
There are upcoming elections on November 15. If Israel obstructs them, this will have impact on the decisions of the PLC. Will Hamas Boycott the elections or will it confront regardless of the obstacles? In both cases, armed resistance will continue in light of the current atmosphere that we are witnessing.

If we want to read into Hamas position, we can say the following: there is a frustrating political situation which I termed as prison. There is no two state solution and there is no binational state in the foreseeable future, but the third option remains which is the resistance and the situation is ready for explosions.

Another participant tackled the issue from a different perspective. It is not possible to read Hamas position away from the current regional and international developments and from its interests in the next developments. "I don’t believe that Hamas Movement is independent; Hamas is a popular movement that affects and is affected by its surroundings and the proof on that is that Hamas agreed that it might extend the truce for one more year. I believe that Hamas has an interest to keep steady relations with Iran, Hezbollah and Syria".

Participant:
The region is about to witness regional developments which will have their impact on the positions of Hamas and will push it towards extremism because Hamas hopes to let the situation pass until the elections and will work then based on its legitimacy through elections similar to the status of Hezbollah. The status of Fatah will be another factor. The developments in the conflict with Fatah and the feeling that Hamas will take a big ratio of the PLC seats which will push them to try and balance matters but Hamas cannot give up the Jihad at least for the next period where the US-Iranian-Syrian conflict will escalate.

With regards to the other influential issues, the relation between the PNA and Israel will have an impact on Hamas position meaning that the elections will be subject to Sharon's conditions and will be accepted by Hamas without making any official statement about it. As for the period after the elections, Hamas will prepare along with other forces to move military action to the West Bank.

Hamas position in Gaza:

1. Is this form productive and useful?
2. Is it productive and useful in their conflict with the PNA and in reinforcing their influence in the street?

Hamas has no choice but to engage in the elections; the other factor that one needs to look into is the splits inside Fatah.

Participant:
The current reality shows the following:

1- Hamas presence and influence in Gaza is larger than in the West Bank.

2- There are indicators that it might change its position towards the elections at the time of political deadlock while it refused any political participation when there were chances for political prospects.

3- The Palestinian political system led by Fatah is interested in holding the elections and shows strong interests in accepting the results of the elections; otherwise, they would not have insisted on holding the municipal elections and they did stress that the PLC elections will be held on January 25 regardless of the results.

4- The features of change in Hamas with regards to political participation in the current system shows that there is a realistic wing inside Hamas that feel they have to change the position because the Palestinian public started to feel dismayed by some of the practices of Hamas which wants the best without paying the price which the executive authority is paying. Therefore, we cannot avoid the fact that Hamas impression on its popularity in Palestine is an important factor that pushed it towards change.

5- Diminishing funding sources.

As for the position of Abu Mazen who counted on this change in Hamas position, he is against any internal fighting. Abu Mazen counted on Hamas becoming part of the system and not against the system. Abu Mazen maintained this relation and proved it is possible to contain the internal Palestinian differences through dialogue although he opposes Hamas project.

6- If we add the regional factor, political Islam has clear options following the experiences in Algiers, Iran, al-Qaedah and Afghanistan. Therefore, I believe that there will be moves towards the one Islamic state but they will fail. We will see how mistakes will be committed just like the mistakes committed by Fatah three years ago. Their mistakes will be seen on real grounds because they are not used to offering services as part of the system but on the margins of the system to gain certain positions.

I disagree with what people say that Fatah includes more than one organization inside it. I think that the problem is less serious than what is being portrayed and that Fatah will be able to contain its internal problems during the next elections.

The following two conclusions can be made:

• The strong desire towards the participation of Hamas in the elections; this is considered a democratic and pluralistic system;
• Fatah desire to have Hamas participate and Fatah desire to win.

To achieve the above-mentioned results, we must encourage Hamas towards change.

He explained: Hamas crisis is an ideological crisis because they want to transform from an ideological religious idea of the Islamic Brotherhood into a national project idea, but the crisis of Fatah is a crisis of figures that can be worked out at the expense of other persons. He added:

1. If proper names are selected for the next elections, Fatah will win with an overwhelming majority.
2. If we work out a list led by Fatah but not limited to Fatah members, Hamas will not get more than 15% to 20% of the votes, if this happens, it will have important representation but will not win the elections.

Following the assassination of Sheikh Ahmad Yasin, Hamas reformulated itself in a different manner; I believe that there is mobility between Hamas and Islamic Brotherhood Movement which adopted for the first time the movement of resistance which started to form its dimensions on solid ground, so it is not easy for Hamas to use the resistance card at its own discretion.

It is clear that there is interim change in Hamas vision. One can note that Hamas is not very far from the political game although it clings to its goal in a different manner. Thus, and in light of the current situation, Hamas is under attack, but reality shows otherwise. There is dialogue between Hamas and the US and meetings between Hamas and Israel. Therefore, Hamas knows its position and role very well away from Hezbollah.

There is what they call the all-out corruption in the PA and the talking about splits and crises, but facts on the ground show that Hamas is part of the security problem, especially in Gaza. Hamas has an interest in not having a strong authority and in joining the elections and taking its share. Hamas tries from time to time to cause splits in the security service in Gaza so as to achieve gains in this aspect.

Practically speaking, Hamas enjoyed notable strength in Gaza until the explosion incident in Jabalia when it insisted that there were no internal mistakes at which point it was exposed in the internal front; Hamas then started to retreat and take its normal dimension in the political meetings.

One important point to note here: will the resistance move from Gaza to the West Bank? For sure, there will be operations at a small scale against the settlers but the West Bank won't be used as launching point for rockets.

Participant:
I believe that some force will prevent holding the elections or delay the elections, but allow me to add another important element in this formula which is the nature of relation between Hamas and Islamic Movement in Israel which is assuming an important role for the Aqsa and for the sake of freedom. However, the indicators show that there will be a bloody Land Day since Israeli schemes are clear, namely the Judaization of the Upper Galilee and offering tax discounts, etc.

The aim of course is to change the demographic ratio from an Arab majority into a Jewish majority. If these schemes are implemented, unlike the conditions during the First Land Day, Israel enjoys international legitimacy because it withdrew from Gaza, and clashes will occur. If this happens as a historical event against Israel, what will be the response of the PA and Hamas with the events, in addition to the level of response by the Islamic Brotherhood?

Participant:
If the elections are delayed, this will lead to a disaster and the forces that want elections are limited to the President, Hamas and the Palestinian society, but the rest are against elections or indifferent.

1- The President:

The President supports the elections and he is the basic driving force behind the elections.

2- Hamas:

I believe that Hamas is an excellent pragmatic movement which has deep roots in the society because it gains its popularity from four sources:

a- the traditional religious people

b- The solid nucleus and members of Hamas itself and those who believe in its ideology, such as university students.

c- People who support Hamas politically and not socially; Hamas has supporters who believe in its program which opposes what is going on now.

d- Those who complain against the authority.

Before the First Intifada, the Islamic Movement inside homeland, in the universities, did not participate in national action. The first Intifada embarrassed them because we still disagree with Hamas when we say that Hamas existed before the Intifada, but in actuality, it existed after the Intifada on January 28, 1988, in their first statement issued during the first Intifada. This point shows the emergence of pragmatism in Hamas positions, especially when they saw the increasing influence of Islamic Jihad since 1982 as they engaged in resisting occupation while Hamas was out of the picture then. I believe that Hamas is going through the same phase nowadays because the Islamic Brotherhood is the political legitimacy reference of Hamas Movement in Palestine, same as the future of Islamists in Jordan or in Syria. I see that Hamas is facing a crisis while Hamas believes that it is part of the Islamic Movement in the region.

What are the reasons that made Hamas accept to participate in the elections?

1. External pressure on Hamas; it has become necessary for Hamas to organize its legitimacy through joining the elections; otherwise, it will be targeted.
2. Funding sources are diminishing and this affects its various services which are the main source of its popular support.
3. the withdrawal from Gaza led to the start of changing its standpoint because Gaza Strip is no longer occupied territory and this will create some vacuum that needs to be filled, so it needs to justify; Hamas struggled to participate in the committee supervising the withdrawal; taken from this angle, Hamas is interested and struggles to control the elections in Gaza Strip.
4. Hamas’ current strength.
5. The Israeli organized attack against Hamas, namely the targeting and assassinating its leaders. Shifting the struggle from Gaza Strip to the West Bank will not take place because then the assassinations will be executed in the West Bank, so this is a justification to move from resistance to political action.
6. There has been internal dismay with the belief that there was cheating, so Hamas reads the reality and finds a hostile atmosphere.

The elections and its implications on the internal situation:
It is a fact that there are various viewpoints on this matter. The closer the date of the elections moves, the stronger the feelings become inside Hamas against participating in the elections. I believe that there internal and external reasons behind this position. Will the leaders abroad remain supportive to the leaders inside the homeland even when they know that this will weaken their presence. What is the impact of the elections on Hamas even if they supported them. The implications on Hamas after the elections are expected to deal with the weight of Hamas and for sure this weight will shift towards the inside following the elections.

With regards to Israel, it will try to use the Hamas card because they are against holding the elections since the elections will grant Hamas new political legitimacy which does not serve Israel because the new parliament will include blocs that will exert pressure on Abu Mazen or any person who would reach any political settlement with Israel.

Israel started a campaign of escalating acts of violence in the region targeting Hamas and striking its infrastructure through arrests under the belief that such a measure would lead Hamas to declare it does not want elections.

As far as resistance and its role in the elections are concerned, I believe that Hamas would use the elections to gain political legitimacy.

Another important issue is the upcoming municipal elections in the major cities in the West Bank.

I would like to point out that Hamas’ problem lies in the ideas and not in the figures since Hamas gained part of its popularity based on refusing to participate, so deciding to join the elections will cause problems for Hamas which will be contradicting itself.

Comment:
With regards to municipal elections as an indicator for the PLC elections, the mistake lies in the fact that people calculate the number of municipalities and number of seats while the basic element is the number of votes, so Hamas calculations are correct. The latest poll conducted by the Development Studies Institute at Birzeit University showed that Hamas got 26% and this ratio does not agree with the number of voters who voted for Hamas in the municipal elections. Even if we want to consider the poll results as close to reality, the results are not necessarily true for the municipal elections.

Conclusion:
1- Hamas’ interest lies in holding elections based on its pragmatic approach and its current and future interests.

2- The civil society will benefit regardless of who participates in the elections.

3- It serves interests of both sides and the PNA and the society to expose Israel’s position against the elections through the following means, including:

a- to depend on the Ministry of Information and the civil society institutions.
b- Public opinion which supports holding the elections.

4- To encourage the line which includes President Abu Mazen and to hold the elections on the set date and not accept any delay.