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21 October 2005
www.haaretz.com

Analysis / Palestinian satisfaction

By Danny Rubinstein


The Palestinian leadership was pleased with the results of yesterday's meeting between Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and U.S. President George W. Bush. The main reason for their satisfaction was Bush's hint that Washington would not object to Hamas' participation in the PA's parliamentary elections.

There are a number of burning issues on the PA's agenda, including the Gaza border crossings, the separation fence, a settlement freeze and prisoner releases. But the elections are even more important, because they constitute a vital stage in Abbas' strategy to impose law and order in the PA and rehabilitate its government. This strategy stems from Abbas' belief that he cannot use force against the armed militias, lest this cause a civil war, so the only way to rein them in is by integrating them into the political system.

The first stage of this plan was the cease-fire agreement that he reached with the militias; the second was the militias' consent to a ban on carrying weapons in public. All of the armed organizations agreed with Abbas that it would be impossible to hold elections if the roads to the polling stations were filled with armed demonstrators. The ban on carrying weapons in public will enable the PA to present at least the appearance of free and fair elections uninfluenced by armed militias.

Abbas believes that these moves enable Hamas members to run for office not as militia commanders, but as representatives of a political movement. And the elections, scheduled for January, are meant to be the decisive stage in the process of dismantling the militias. In Abbas's view, even if Hamas does well in the elections, its participation in the PA's legislative and executive institutions will force it to moderate its political positions.

Israel's demand that Hamas not be allowed to run in the elections and its threat to disrupt the elections in the West Bank frightened the Palestinian leadership. Palestinian spokesmen explained that Israel's opposition could not prevent Hamas members from running, since the PA election law allows any citizen to run. Thus Israel's stance, they argued, would succeed only in strengthening Hamas.

Senior Palestinian officials therefore expressed the hope last night that America's position would not change, and that Washington would ultimately accept Abbas' plan for dealing with Hamas - a plan that would enable the diplomatic process to resume following the Palestinian election.

Published 21 October 2005, www.haaretz.com