Topics discussed:

• Creating a typology of settlements;
• Possible negotiated land exchanges and the status of lands and populations affected by them;
• Possible negotiated trade offs;
• Security arrangements: strategic interests and personal security;
• Political processes.

Dr. Mahdi Abdul Hadi analysed the settlement issue as follows:

The development of settlements can be seen in four phases, which gives an indication of likely future developments. In the first phase, from 1967 to 1987, Israeli governments, whether Labour or Likud, made intensive efforts to create facts on the ground and to move Israelis to the Occupied Palestinian Territories, with the intention of annexing the entire historical land of Palestine to the State of Israel. Scholars such as Meron Benvenisti concluded that the extent of the settlement drive was such that the process was irreversible.

The second phase was the intifada, which proved to the world that the situation was reversible. The Palestinians succeeded in changing the status quo and passing a clear message to the Israelis that they could not continue occupying the Palestinian territories. Mr. Peres began to say that Israel could no longer govern the Palestinians and Mr. Rabin accepted the idea of separation.

The third phase was the negotiations lasting until 1993, which had two tracks. The first 22 months of the negotiations were with a Likud government which would not move one inch on the issue of settlements. The longer negotiations continued, the more settlements were becoming facts on the ground, which crippled the Palestinian negotiating team. Finally, the Oslo Agreement included the postponement of discussion of five major issues, including settlements.

There are two schools of thought in Israel on settlements. One seeks to use the settlements as a card to perpetuate the Israeli presence in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Others are reluctant to trust the PA as a national authority capable of governing the Palestinians and maintaining stability and security in the region. They want to return to the old agenda of the Labour party, using the Jordanian option with a different interpretation. If Chairman Arafat fails in the transitional phase, they will still have the Israeli-Jordanian option.

We are now entering the transitional phase, which will be very delicate given the divisions in Israeli society. It is questionable whether Mr. Peres can deliver and maintain the interests of the various constituencies in Israel, including the settlers, or build public opinion for the removal of settlements.

There is a need for creative thinking among both Palestinian and Israeli leaderships to overcome the issue of settlements. The retention of some settlements in the Palestinian Territories, will lead to resistance from Palestinians, as occurred with the Mount Scopus enclave between 1948 and 1967, and the British installations in Egypt during the 1950s. This will be an economic and security drain on Israeli resources, and destabilising for the region as a whole. The settlements must therefore be removed, perhaps with compensation.